The organizers have planned for several improvements this year, including increasing attention to error estimates, addition of sea ice thickness information where available, additional outreach efforts, and further development of the "Data Resources" webpage (please send anyrelevant links to add).

ALL Outlook submissions should be sent directly to Helen Wiggins, ARCUS, at: helen@arcus.org, with the following subject lines, asrelevant:

PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

REGIONAL OUTLOOK - [YOUR LAST NAME]

OUTLOOK FOR BOTH REGIONAL AND PAN-ARCTIC - [YOUR LAST NAME]

A Word document is preferred for ease of formatting to PDF files and extracting images for the website - ARCUS will not edit your individual submission and will not post your Word documents.

SUBMITTING A PAN-ARCTIC OUTLOOK
Pan-arctic Outlook contributions should include:
1. Extent ProjectionProvide a sea ice projection for the September monthly mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
2. Methods/TechniquesProvide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model ensemble runs, etc.).
3. RationaleInclude a short paragraph on the physical rationale for the estimate.
4. Executive SummaryProvide a short paragraph that summarizes your outlook contribution in two or three sentences.
5. Estimate of Forecast Skill (if available) If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

This year, ARCUS will add error estimates to the summary bar chart of outlook estimates, as appropriate.This year a brief discussion of ice thickness in the monthly reports is aspired to be included, so please include any relevant information on ice thickness (or age), if available.

Pan-Arctic Outlook submission deadline: Tuesday, 31 May 2011.

All Outlooks should be sent to:

Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

SUBMITTING A REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Regional Outlook contributions should include:

1. Region of Interest
While more specific sub-regions may be identified, at a minimum, please specify which of the following the outlook applies to:

Arctic Regions:

- Beaufort-Chukchi Seas
- East Siberian-Laptev Seas
- Kara-Barents-Greenland Seas
- Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait
-  Hudson Bay
- Sea of Okhotsk
- Bering Sea

Shipping Routes:
- Northwest Passage
 - Northeast Passage (Northern Sea Route)
- Arctic Bridge (Murmansk-Churchill)

2. Sea Ice Parameter
Provide a regional pattern or a single value estimate of phonological stages (i.e., melt onset, freeze onset, break-up and freeze-up dates,length of open water season) or monthly ice concentration, ice area, and ice extent. Please indicate whether you expect ice conditions to be similar, lighter (i.e., lower ice concentrations, earlier melt onset,earlier break-up, later freeze-up), or heavier (i.e., greater ice concentrations, later melt onset, later break-up, earlier freeze-up) than those of summer 2010.

3. Outline of Methods/Techniques
Provide the type of estimate (heuristic, statistical, ice-ocean model, traditional knowledge, etc.) with a brief description of the methodology and a short paragraph describing the physical rationale for the estimate.

4. Estimate of Forecast Skill
If possible, please include any estimates of forecast skill, uncertainty, or error associated with your prediction.

5. Improving Outlook Detail and Accuracy (Optional)
What information would be needed to improve the level of detail provided in your Regional Outlook or increase the accuracy/confidence in your prediction?

Regional Outlook submission deadline: Friday, 27 May 2011.

All Outlooks should be sent to:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org

For further information on the Sea Ice Outlook, please click here or contact:
Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Email: helen@arcus.org